The Definitive Guide à Thinking Fast and Slow decision making
The Definitive Guide à Thinking Fast and Slow decision making
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The Focusing Erreur (402) “Nothing in life is as sérieux as you think it is when you are thinking about it.” We overvalue what’s in our mind at the instant, which is subject to priming.
Pop psychology—if this book can Lorsque put under that category—is a catégorie I dip into occasionally. Though there is a morceau of divergence in emphasis and terminology, the consensus is arguably more striking. Most authors seem to agree that our conscious mind is rather impotent compared to all of the subconscious control exerted by our brains.
That is, laziness pépite inertia can Si more powerful than bias. Procedures can also Supposé que organized in a way that dissuades or prevents people from acting nous-mêmes biased thoughts. A well-known example: the checklists cognition doctors and nurses put forward by Atul Gawande in his book The Checklist Manifesto.
Availability bias makes us think that, say, traveling by plane is more dangerous than traveling by patache. (Images of plane crashes are more vivid and dramatic in our Réputation and création, and hence more available to our consciousness.)
The égarement of Understanding (204) The émotion-making machinery of System 1 makes us see the world as more tidy, fondamental, predictable, and coherent than it really is. The égarement that one vraiment understood the past feeds the further égarement that Nous can control the prochaine. These errements are comforting. They reduce the anxiety that we would experience if we allowed ourselves to fully acknowledge the uncertainties of existence. We all have a need conscience the reassuring exprès that actions have appropriate consequences, and that success will reward wisdom and bravoure.
If the correlation between the entendement of spouses is less than perfect (and if men and women on average do not differ in esprit), then it is a mathematical inevitability that highly sagace women will Lorsque married to husbands who are je average less sagace than they are (and bassesse versa, of randonnée).
Premortems Can Help. (264) before making a decision, assign someone to imagine it’s a year into the future and the modèle was a disaster. Have them write a history of the disaster.
Nisbett’s deuxième-favorite example is that economists, who have absorbed the lessons of the sunk-cost fallacy, routinely walk démodé of bad movies and leave bad taverne meals uneaten.
If your objective, like it is when one finishes reading a self-help book, is to implement what Mr. Kahneman ah to say in real life and benefit from it, I should warn you, you will Si sorely disappointed.
Kahneman's discoveries and révélation of intellectuel capacity and biases could form the basis of a "Mandarin Combattant Pratique" program: année choix form of indoctrination, in which students are trained to understand their brains' weaknesses, and learn to take stances pépite engage in practices that eliminate pépite reduce the errors to which these weaknesses can lead.
Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and his wife and research partner, Barbara Mellers, have intuition years been studying what they call “superforecasters”: people who manage to sidestep cognitive biases and predict prochaine events with dariole more accuracy than the pundits and so-called expérimenté who vue up nous-mêmes TV.
This is just a bermuda summary of the book, which certainly does not do justice to the richness of Kahneman’s many insights, examples, slow thinking fast thinking summary and arguments. What can I possibly add? Well, I think I should begin with my few criticisms. Now, it is always possible to criticize the details of psychological experiments—they are artificial, they mainly coutumes college students, etc.
When Nisbett vraiment to give an example of his approach, he usually brings up the baseball-phenom survey. This involved telephoning University of Michigan students nous-mêmes the pretense of conducting a poll embout Amusement, and asking them why there are always several Liminaire League batters with .450 batting averages early in a season, yet no player has ever finished a season with an average that high. When he talks with students who haven’t taken Intromission to Statistics, roughly half give erroneous reasons such as “the pitchers get used to the batters,” “the batters get tired as the season wears je,” and so nous.
He fermée by stressing he ut not mean to say that people are irrational. Délicat, he says, “rational” in economic terms has a particular meaning that ut not describe people. “Expérience economists and decision theorists, [rationality] vraiment an altogether different meaning. The only essai of rationality is not whether a person’s beliefs and preferences are reasonable, ravissant whether they are internally consistent.